10,000 seeded games with events off and the same 10,000 with events on. Smart bots in every seat, 0 errors, no stalled rounds.
45.5%of games had an event (target about 45%)
15.5 vs 15.5 mintypical game, off vs on
24.7% to 25.5%wins by seat, events on (off: 24.7% to 25.3%)
31% vs 32%games won by the round-3 leader, off vs on
Flags
Fog makes the big cards cheap and decisive. A fogged 7 to 10 sells for about 14 gold instead of 21, and its winner goes on to win the game 79% of the time instead of 48% (on the 4 to 6: 59% instead of 34%). Nobody can see the value, so everyone bids what an average card is worth. Fog on a negative works the other way: the winner pays about 14 gold for a card that costs them points.
Fire on the 7 makes it cheaper: 16 gold instead of 19, because the stakes burn while players fight. It is the only 7 to 10 event that lowers the price.
Rainbow on the 5 swings games: half price, and the winner goes on to win 51% of the time instead of 34%.
Gold Fever on the 10 makes the final fight cost more, as intended: 33 gold instead of 23, with longer rounds.
Quiet events: Quicksand on the 10 and Lightning Rod barely change price or outcome. Pot of Gold pays out in only 1 round in 5, about 3 gold.
Bots follow the rules but don't change strategy for an event, apart from guessing Fog's value. People will play the events harder, so these numbers are a floor on how much each one matters.
Each event card against the same value without an event
same value, no eventwith the eventflagged
Card
Winner pays (gold)
Winner of that card goes on to win the game
7-10 Fog on 7 to 10165 rounds
14 vs 21
79% vs 48%
7-10 Quicksand on 10275 rounds
24 vs 23
85% vs 83%
7-10 Gold Fever on 10267 rounds
33 vs 23
84% vs 83%
7-10 Lightning Rod on 9304 rounds
21 vs 22
46% vs 41%
7-10 Lightning Rod on 8275 rounds
21 vs 21
43% vs 41%
7-10 Fire on 7260 rounds
16 vs 19
44% vs 41%
Fog on 4 to 6241 rounds
14 vs 16
59% vs 34%
Gold Fever on 6284 rounds
29 vs 18
37% vs 38%
Fire on 5282 rounds
14 vs 16
33% vs 34%
Rainbow on 5274 rounds
9 vs 16
51% vs 34%
Ice on 4297 rounds
13 vs 14
32% vs 30%
Fog on 1 to 3123 rounds
13 vs 11
34% vs 29%
Ice on 3309 rounds
11 vs 12
29% vs 29%
Stake swap on 3284 rounds
12 vs 12
31% vs 29%
Rainbow on 2318 rounds
5 vs 9
34% vs 30%
Pot of Gold on 2301 rounds
9 vs 9
34% vs 30%
Pot of Gold on 1298 rounds
6 vs 6
30% vs 27%
Mushroom Ring on 1301 rounds
6 vs 6
27% vs 27%
Fog on negatives93 rounds
14 vs 3
28% vs 28%
Mushroom Ring on -1298 rounds
2 vs 2
30% vs 26%
Stake swap on -2314 rounds
2 vs 2
28% vs 28%
Quicksand on -3305 rounds
3 vs 3
27% vs 27%
Game length
Events off
Events on
Typical game (minutes)
15.5
15.5
Long game, 1 in 10 (minutes)
21.9
22.5
Longest game (minutes)
34.0
38.8
Rounds in a typical game
6
6
Rounds over 60 turns
1
3
Longest round (turns)
66
78
Minutes use the game's normal online pace estimate of 6 seconds a turn plus card reads. Rounds per card: about 300 for each event card and 93 to 241 for each Fog group.